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November 2007

November 28, 2007

Cyber Monday Satisfaction Up From Last Year

Well, we crunched our data (from more than 38,000 satisfaction surveys completed by holiday shoppers on Cyber Monday and over the previous holiday weekend), and we found that online shoppers were actually more satisfied with their experience on Cyber Monday 2007 than they were in 2006. Satisfaction rose a point over last year, a statistically significant amount given the numbers we’re dealing with. I think this is in large part because retailers were better prepared for volume (we saw higher scores for elements like site performance and functionality than we have in previous years on Cyber Monday) and because retailers are being a lot more consistent with free shipping offers, 2-day sales, and other attractive promotions.

The other really interesting thing, in my opinion, was that we saw future behavior scores for likelihood to buy online and likelihood to buy offline BOTH increased this year. This means that the online channel is actually doing a good job driving both online and offline sales, where as in previous years, we’ve seen it primarily driving one or the other, but not both. This is a great indication to me that retailers are finally starting to figure out the multichannel (or merged channel) implications of the increased traffic they see during the holidays.

Because satisfaction as measured by the ACSI (which is the methodology we used for this and all surveys) is predictive of future success, financial results, sales, and word of mouth, these higher Cyber Monday scores indicate to me that online retailers have a nice year ahead of them!

You can read more about the findings in the press release.

November 27, 2007

New Record

 Wow—I just heard from my Director of Technology that we served more than 500,000 online customer satisfaction surveys yesterday—a new record for us.  Half a million surveys in just one day!

It’s no coincidence that yesterday was Cyber Monday and people were shopping online in record numbers this year (just checked both Comscore and Hitwise to see if there are any early estimates for traffic volume, but I don't see any yet).

We’ve been taking satisfaction readings through the month of November and on Cyber Monday for a few years in a row now, so hopefully tomorrow, we’ll be releasing our take on how satisfied shoppers were this Cyber Monday compared to previous years and other times of the year. It should tell us something about how well all the free shipping promos and other early deals and discounts are working this year. Also, since customer satisfaction as measured by the ACSI is predictive, it should give us an idea of what we can expect to see in the next three weeks or so as the online holiday shopping season gets in full swing.

Let the games begin!

November 26, 2007

Audiocast #4 with Evan Schuman: The Future of the Web Analytics Industry

Here’s the last segment of my first series of audiocasts with Evan Schuman of StoreFront Back Talk. We talk about the future of the analytics industry and how it’s essential for any analytic vendor to be completely honest and transparent about what their metric is truly capable of (without overpromising or overreaching). The future will be about how metrics work together to provide online companies with a complete picture of actionable data and insights.

November 20, 2007

Last-Minute Holiday Prep

Cyber Monday is less than a week away, but it’s not too late to evaluate your holiday strategy! Here’s my take on 5 things you still have time to look at before the biggest crush of holiday visitors hits your site. Are there other last-minute things you’re shoring up? 

 

November 16, 2007

How Kellogg Uses Customer Sat To Measure Website Value

Brandweek Magazine did an article this week about how we helped Kellogg quantify the contribution of several of their key brand websites on long-term customer loyalty, brand perception, and overall customer relationships.  This can be a huge challenge for brand managers—how do you tell if the website is strengthening customer relationships and influencing their future behaviors if you can’t measure that in terms of online sales?

Well, you do so by applying the methodology of the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI), which is the only metric that has been scientifically and academically proven to be predictive of loyalty, ROI, and future financial performance.  When you can’t measure sales, you can measure satisfaction, which predicts the future behaviors that lead to sales.

By using the actionable data that the ACSI methodology provides, Kellogg was able to make several changes that resulted in tangible rewards and quantifiable proof that their websites were actively helping build customer relationships and influence loyalty.

And hey, I can't resist saying it, now they're grrrrreeeeat!Tonythetiger



 

November 14, 2007

Audiocast #3 with Evan Schuman: The long-term view of customer satisfaction metrics

I see a lot of sites focusing on short-term or even historical metrics, like purchases. Knowing how many people bought something tells you what they did yesterday, but not what they’ll do tomorrow.

The true value of the website becomes clear when it’s measured in a way that assesses long-term value and not just short-term gains.  In the third installment of my e-retail audiocast series with Evan Schuman, we talk about how customer satisfaction can quantify the value of a customer in terms of their purchase, loyalty, and word of mouth behaviors down the road, not just what they did yesterday or what they’re doing today.

November 13, 2007

Okay, I'll Bite

Richard Owen, CEO of Satmetrics has issued a response, of sorts, to the numerous criticisms of the Net Promoter methodology that have come from us, in a published paper by IPSOS, and from folks like Ron Shevlin, other academics, and scores of other critics. I’ve seen NPS fans in the blogosphere practically begging Fred Reichheld or someone from Satmetrics to address the criticisms point-by-point and put them to rest once and for all.

But the only defense they really offer is that a) the critics have something to gain from the attacks b) companies wouldn’t be using NPS if it didn’t work (right, because companies never do stuff that doesn’t work!), and c) NPS may not work as well as more complex and comprehensive metrics, but it’s so simple and easy that it doesn’t really need to.

I saw Fred Reichheld also has a new blog post up about how you can consider yourself a user of Net Promoter even if 1) you aren’t asking only one question 2) the question you ARE asking isn’t “the ultimate question” and 3) you are doing anything at all to increase promoters and decrease detractors.

By this definition, we are all NPS users, which I guess is his point. Though when the concept set forth in a very specific book is diluted down that much, I don’t really get the point of calling it “Net Promoter.” It’s a bit like Coke going out there and saying that you can consider yourself a Coke drinker if you’re drinking any liquid, whether or not it is sweet, carbonated, and brown.

I guess the criticism is starting to sink in a little, so they’re doing their best to bring the issue back to the idea that measuring promoters and detractors is important, no matter how you do it. But it seems like they are just changing definitions around so that anything can be considered a Net Promoter system rather than addressing the criticisms of the specific plan they have been suggesting for years now.

Here’s the bottom line: likelihood to recommend is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT, but it is NOT the only thing you need to measure. And both of these blog posts are kind of missing that key point. We all agree that people should be paying attention to word of mouth. We all agree that one positive aspect of Net Promoter is that it’s gotten a lot of companies to rally around the concept of the customer, which many were not previously doing.

But #1, promoters and detractors are not the only think you need to keep track of. That metric, no matter how you measure it (NPS or some other system) is not going to predict growth. There are just too many variables—not all products lend themselves to recommendation, not all people are the sort to talk about their experiences, etc.

And #2, NPS just isn’t the best way to measure recommending because it overstates detractor behavior and has high margins of error.

So kudos to Reichheld and Satmetrics for getting the conversation started. But it’s time to stop holding on to this notion of NPS as a brand that must be protected and defended at all costs, and start getting at what actually works. Sure, one of the things we should all be paying attention to is how many people will recommend our company or not. But that issue is not the singular issue facing companies today. Continuing to hold on to this outdated concept is going to hurt far more companies than it helps.

There is apparently a roundtable at the WOMMA Research Symposium this morning, led by Walter Carl and including representatives from both sides of the NPS debate on whether you would recommend NPS as a metric. They’re going to make the audio recording available after the event, so I’ll be interested to hear that discussion. It seems there are still very specific criticisms of NPS that have not been addressed by the practitioners who promote it.

November 07, 2007

ACSI Link to Stock Prices

You may have read the January 2006 article in the Journal of Marketing proving that not only are the University of Michigan’s American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) scores a leading indicator of consumer spending and overall company financial growth, they also predict stock prices. (full disclosure, ForeSee Results is a corporate sponsor of the ACSI e-commerce and e-business reports).

Claes Fornell, who heads up the ACSI, shared the latest returns with me. As of the end of September, an ACSI-based stock portfolio has beaten the market seven years in a row (will be 8 years in a row in just a few short months when we close out 2007, assuming things stay on track). That in itself is pretty incredible.

Also, the ACSI-based fund has a 5-year return of 218% - more than 100% above market with an annualized return of 26% (as of Sept 07).

BusinessWeek, the Wall Street Journal, and the Harvard Business Review have all written about this connection between ACSI scores and stock prices. There hasn’t been any evidence yet that ACSI scores move the market. But ACSI scores come out 4x a year and measure different companies and industries each quarter—I think they measure more than 200 companies now. It seems only a matter of time before the extensive publicity the scores always get starts leading people to buy or sell based on how well the measured companies did—or didn’t do. It will be interesting to watch.

 

November 02, 2007

What is All That Fuss About in Ann Arbor? Appalachian State Isn't Back In Town . . .

We’re an international company (we’ll soon be opening offices in the UK), but we get a lot of attention in our home town of Ann Arbor because of the new jobs and investment we’ve brought to the area at a time when lots of companies are leaving Michigan. One of the local media outlets came and did a feature on us that you can see on their website or on YouTube. Yes, that is me in the blue shirt. Doesn’t the background music make us look like a young, hip place to work? Aren’t you enticed by the happy-go-lucky employees lunching by the lake?

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