In the Halloween spirit will this online holiday season be dressed in a scary costume?
As we move past Halloween, have seen our last scary thing for the year? Probably not. eMarketer is predicting 10.1% growth online this holiday season. That is a $4 billion increase over last year's online holiday season. Not bad considering the economic turmoil we are currently experiencing, but compared to prior years (2007: 19.6% growth and $4.7 billion from the prior year and 2006: 23.4% growth and $4.7 billion from the prior year) very disappointing. Comscore recently reported online retail sales in Q3 were 6% over the prior year, compared to 13% in Q2 and 12% in Q1.
Will consumer confidence rebound from an alltime low? WIll a new President inspire us to spend more this holiday season (or hide the money in our matress)? Will the outgoing President take a page out of FDR's playbook from 1939 and move Thanksgiving a week earlier in order to start the holiday shopping season earlier? Will Retailers start their holiday promotions and free shipping earlier to attempt to spur online holiday sales?
A lot of questions ... with few answers.
This holiday season will be a challenging one. I expect those that focus on their customers will do very well, unfortunately some of it will be at the expense of their competitors. Remember, that satisfaction drives consumers behavior -- in the short run and the long run. It is more then price and promotions that will carry the day. Those that satisfy their customers will win! Tough economic times are a great opportunity for the strong to get stronger. Success and failure will happen quicker. We like to call that acclerated Darwinism.
Do something to have faith, believe in yourself
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