FREEDyourMind

UK E-Retailers: Best and Worst of the Christmas Season

Our annual study of satisfaction with the top 40 e-retailers in the UK is out today (the Top 40 in the US will be out next week on 12/28), and the findings are pretty interesting.

First, customer satisfaction is up for the fourth year in a row, to an all-time high for the UK of 73, a slow but steady increase over the last five years.

It's also interesting to take a look at how the individual companies did. We see a really wide range of performance among UK e-retailers--there is a notable 24-point gap between the highest-scoring e-retailer (Amazon.co.uk, 85) and the lowest (London2012.com, 61).

The last quarter of the year is the most important time of the year in e-retail in both the US and the UK– especially this year during such a tumultuous economic period. The last few months of 2011 and early 2012 will could make or break many retailers.  One way to look at it is that e-retailers have a unique opportunity to acquire new customers for years to come, strengthen relationships with existing ones and make a significant difference to their bottom line.

One of the best ways to increase success is by improving the customer experience, which results in increased sales, loyalty, and positive word-of-mouth recommendations. Understanding customer needs and expectations is critical for retailers to continue to survive and thrive in an increasingly competitive and winner-takes-all business environment.

2011 Holiday Season: Satisfaction Update

Cyber Monday and Green Monday have passed. Free Shipping Friday and the Holidays themselves are in our future. Where do things stand in terms of the customer experience this holiday season?

(Why do we care? Because customer satisfaction, when measured correctly, predicts the future financial success of a company and also predicts future purchases, loyalty and recommendations. So we definitely want to keep on track of what has already happened with revenue reports, but looking at sales tells us what has already happened, whereas looking at satisfaction can actually predict the future.)

Sales tell us it has been a great holiday season so far. Comscore says holiday sales in the U.S. are approaching $25B, up 15% from last year. A record $1.25B was spent on Cyber Monday. We analyzed our customer data in the form of three benchmarks this week in order to look at the holiday season through the eyes of the customer:

1)      Customer satisfaction: satisfaction is rebounding, and on Green Monday, it was nearly as high as it has been throughout the holiday season so far.

2)      True Conversion Rates: “True” conversion rates are also higher than we’ve seen them in months. Retail sites are doing a good job of converting customers online this year.

3)      Social Media Value: social media has limited value as a direct marketing tool but remains a huge influence on shopping habits and decisions.

#1 Customer Satisfaction

Our retail benchmark suggests that online shopper satisfaction is picking up steam. As we reported, satisfaction was less than stellar on Cyber Monday, but satisfaction on Green Monday has rebounded, and was close to its highest point so far this holiday season, following a dip after Thanksgiving.

#2 True Conversion

Virtually all retailers measure conversion: how many people came to your site vs. how many people actually purchased? Typical retail industry conversion rates hover around 2 or 3%, according to Forrester Research. But what does that really tell you about your ability to help people accomplish what they intended to accomplish.

A couple of years ago, we introduced a metric called True Conversion (you can read more about it in Managing Forward). True conversion looks at how many people came to your site intending to buy, and then how many actually did.

So here’s how it shakes out this holiday season.

When we ask visitors to e-commerce websites over the holiday shopping season why they came to the website, 43% came with the intent to purchase, 50% came with the intent to research, and 7% came for some other reason.

Of the 43% who came to purchase, 49% actually did. That metric is a lot more valuable than knowing what your overall conversion rate is. THIS is the number you want to track and move the needle on. If your True Conversion Rate is 49% this holiday, you should be shooting for 50% next season or even 60% or 70%.

 

I should also mention that there is a huge range in True Conversion Rates when you look at individual retailers. On average, the True Conversion Rate was 43%, but in our benchmark, there was one multichannel retailer (let’s call them Site A) who had a True Conversion Rate of 9% while another multichannel retailer (Site B) had a True Conversion Rate of 79%! These are actual examples from the retailer in our benchmark during the 2011 holiday shopping season, and both are stores that should have a heavy component of holiday gift buying on their sites. This means that of the people that came to that website intending to buy from Site A, only 9% actually did. That’s a terrible conversion rate! That means that 91% of the people who came to that site with money burning a hole in their pocket left without spending a dime. But on Site B, 79% of the people who intended to buy actually did. That’s a much more impressive number.

 

Another interesting data point: 50% of visitors to e-retail websites came intending to research, with no plans to buy anything. Yet 9% of those visitors still converted, even though they didn’t plan to. That’s just extra money the retailer was probably not expecting.

I follow these True Conversion benchmarks pretty closely throughout the year (and if you are a client of ours, you can participate in True Conversion at no extra cost; just ask your analyst), and these numbers look great to me. A True Conversion Rate of 49% (on average for all our retail clients in the benchmark) is a great number—about 11% higher than it was just two months ago before the holiday shopping season got into full swing. We would expect True Conversion Rates to be higher at the holidays—there is more impetus to buy and to buy quickly.

The burning questions for retailers 1) Do you know your True Conversion Rate? 2) Are you measuring regular conversion, and what does it really tell you? 3) Do you know which elements of your website you should improve in order to increase True Conversion? 4) Is there anything you can or should do to convert more of those researchers, the people who didn’t plan to buy anything when they came?

#3 Social Media Value

A third benchmark we’ve been tracking for some time is the Social Media Value Calculation. This is basically a way to calculate the actual tangible value that social media brings to you, beyond just fluffy stats like numbers of followers or fans. The Social Media Value Calculation categorizes people based on the amount of influence your social media initiatives have on their decision to visit the website, store, or call center. You can gain greater insight into how much your social media efforts impact customer acquisition and even spending.

So here’s what we’re seeing in terms of social media value during the holiday season. We consistently see that social media URL’s are responsible for only about 1% of site traffic, and that is the same during the holiday season. However, although only 1% are coming directly from a social media site, social media was a primary influence for 7% of site visitors. And 16% of site visitors reported social media influenced their visit or purchase in one way or another. Moreover, those influenced by social media were more satisfied, more likely to purchase, more likely to recommend and more likely to return. 

So, clearly, social media is making a significant contribution this holiday season.  But this also tells me that social media leave a lot to be desired as a direct marketing tool (only 1% of site visits come referred from social URLs). The true value of social media remains in the arena where it’s still hardest to control—the viral, word-of-mouth nature of real social interactions happening between friends, colleagues, and acquaintances.

These are some of the themes we see emerging from our research, which is ongoing throughout the holiday season. Are there any surprises here for you? Are you measuring satisfaction, True Conversion and Social Media Value? What kinds of insights do these metrics give you during the holidays?

The ForeSee retail benchmark is made up of 159 individual websites, ranging from Fortune 100 retailers to smaller, regional retailers. Among the retail websitesincluded in the benchmark are retailers like Ace Hardware, Bass Pro Shops, Belk, Cabela’s, Chef’s Catalog, Eddie Bauer, eBags, Gamefly, Harry and David, Helzberg Diamonds, Home Depot, LEGO, Musician’s Friend, Panasonic, Samsung, Sears, Sephora, Sony, and StubHub.

ForeSee has been releasing a weekly online satisfaction benchmark during the holiday shopping season for six years. ForeSee collected more than 660.000 satisfaction surveys from people who shopped on retail websites in November and December 2011.

Cyber Monday 2011: Satisfaction Off to a Slow Start, Despite Higher Sales

Our annual analysis of customer satisfaction on Cyber Monday is turning up some interesting finds.

1. Browsers (that's people who shopped online whether or not they bought anything) are less satisfied this year than last year.

2. In general, satisfaction is trending slightly down this year. We'll have to wait and see if that turns around.

3. Buyers are about equally satisfied this year and last year.

4. Apparel & Accessories websites (of all kinds, including shoes) are doing the best job satisfying customers so far this season.

It's very early; too soon to say if the slightly lower satisfaction this year will translate into a slowing down of sales in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!

The Holiday Season Is Off To A Good Start

Black Friday has come and gone and tomorrow is Cyber Monday.  So, let's take a minute and see how the holiday season looks so far and how the holiday weekend fared.

To start with, all seems right with the world, Michigan beat Ohio State this weekend in an exciting football game in front of over 114,000 people at Michigan Stadium ("The Big House") in Ann Arbor, and instead of dealing with the typical gray and cold November sky, we got 60 degrees of warmth.

Now back to the holiday season.

comScore reports online commerce on Black Friday was up 26% over last year.  A great start to the online holiday season.  Last year they reported a 9% increase over the prior year.  So far, so good.  Anecdotally there seemed to be more holiday sales and they seemed to start earlier this year than prior years.  We also saw a little more coordination between online and offline, although still many sites had their online specials and their offline specials.

Have you been online this holiday season?  Have your expectations been met?  Satisfaction drives success, both short term and long term.  Satisfaction comes from both your experiences and your expectations.  Did the experiences you had live up to the expectations you had?

The National Retail Federation is reporting that Black Friday brought $52.4 billion in sales during the four day weekend, up from $45 billion last year, an increase of 16%. It was also reported that shoppers average spend increased to $398 from $356 last year, an increase of nearly 12%.

So far we know that the holiday season has been a success to the retailers.  We will be digging into the Satisfaction data this week to better understand how successful the beginning of the holiday season is from the consumer's perspective.

 

New Data: Groupon & Living Social Bring New Customers (and Existing Ones)

Earlier this month, the New York Times reported that as Groupon prepares to go public, the success of its business model is in some question. I took a look at some data from our Top 100 study this year (data gathered in February/March timeframe), and I don’t think anyone should be signing any death certificates yet.

Our annual top 100 research (a study of customer satisfaction with the top 100 American e-retailers, as defined by Internet Retailer's Top 500 Guide) gives us the opportunity to ask more than 22,000 online shoppers about a variety of topics. This spring, one subject we wanted to explore was the daily deal phenomenon, and this latest news about Groupon made me dig out the data and look a little closer at the findings (thanks also to research manager Rhonda Berg for her great help with this). What we found is that Groupon and Living Social do bring in new customers, and that should be welcome news to both retailers and daily deal companies alike.

Let me give you some background data for context.

About two-thirds of Top 100 site visitors are enrolled in at least one Daily Deal email program. (that's 14,000 + of the more than 22,000 respondents we surveyed who visited the top 100 retail websites, or 65%). Groupon is the most popular site among those who subscribe to daily deals; it has about twice the number of subscribers as its closest competitor, Living Social, and more than twice the number of purchasers. Although the New York Times reports that competitors are catching up, Groupon is solidly in the lead for now (and we’ll see how those numbers look when we do the study again in 6 months).

 

Of those who subscribe to daily deals, nearly half (46%) subscribe to more than one service, a number that should continue to rise. In other words, just because some competitors are gaining traction doesn’t necessarily mean that Groupon will be losing it. This may be a situation where there is enough pie for everyone (of course, that is pie sold at half price!).

 

Not only are shoppers subscribing to these daily deals, they are using them, which is good news for consumers, retailers, and the sustainability of the daily deal business model in general. Nearly two-thirds of subscribers to daily deals have purchased at least one deal in the past 90 days, regardless of what site they're subscribed to, and most of those buyers (89%) have redeemed their purchase during that time.  I was surprised by the strength of these numbers and the daily deal companies (and their investors) should be thrilled with the results.

 

Now we get to the part that I think is the most interesting and has the most relevance to recent discussions about the future of the daily deal business model and the individual companies involved. Are Groupon and Living Social actually helping companies to acquire new business or are they just letting existing customers get better deals when they might have been willing to buy at full price? The million dollar question... (or thousand dollar question, or multimillion dollar question, depending on your business size...).  And of course there is both good news and bad news here.

Good News/Bad News: Daily deals do bring in new business but also give deals to frequent customers. Of the people buying daily deals, 38% were already frequent customers of the company.  In other words, existing customers, loyal customers, are getting significant discounts to buy what they might have bought anyway.  The added value is minimal, it erodes margins and potentially conditions the loyal customers to become discount seekers.

On the positive side, 31%, are brand new business (new customers who weren’t aware of the company before the deal plus those with some brand awareness), 27% were infrequent customers, and 4% were former customers. That's at least 35% and arguably 62% of deal buyers that represent NEW business.  This is compelling data, and these are the customers that provide what the daily deal model is supposed to provide: bringing you new customers to try your business or products out.  Now it's up to you to do a great job in meeting their needs and satisfying these new customers.  And not only satisfy them but satisfy them to the level that will allow you to convert a percentage of customers to long term, loyal customers.  More to come on that in future research.

 

If you’re interested, here’s a bit of demographic data that shows who these daily deal companies are targeting. The charts below reflect the demographics of subscribers.

 

 

Daily Deals are also attracting men and women differently; among the three major players, Google Offers garners more male participation than either Groupon or Living Social.

 

Ok, your turn. We’ve read a lot about the challenges of this business model and, specifically, the challenges that Groupon may be facing. As a retailer, does this give you more confidence in using a service like Groupon or Living Social? Or if you have, do you have any experience to share? As an investor, does this increase your confidence in the potential of this business model? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments.

Top 100: Social Media

Here is more information from our Top 100 Online Retail Satisfaction Index released earlier this month. Today's topic is social media.

Social media is turning out to be a touchpoint with enormous potential for satisfying shoppers and building loyalty and relationships. When we study our own clients using our Social Media Value Calculation, we see that social media has little direct impact on web traffic. In fact, in our most recent Social Media Value Calculation benchmark we saw that only 1% of site visitors came direct from a social media site.  However, 18% of the site visitors indicated that social media was an influence on their visit to the website. When applying this methodology we are able to attribute how much revenue is influenced by social media, helping companies truly understand the return on investment for their social media marketing efforts and also the value that the viral effect of social media is having on their business.   

Back to our Top 100 Online Retail Satisfaction Index.  First, when customers rate their satisfaction with various touchpoints, they are actually more satisfied with their interactions on Facebook and Twitter than many other customer touchpoints, including the website!

 
 

What social sites are most e-retail shoppers using? No surprise here. Facebook.

 

But where do they want to hear from retailers? 42% don't want to hear from retailers at all on social sites.

 
42% of survey respondents say they don't want to interact with retailers on social sites, but the next question indicates that only 29% aren't actually interacting with any retailers, which mean there are some people who SAY they don't want to interact with retailers on Facebook who are already doing so. That's why it's important to have a methodology that dig a little deeper. In fact, 69% of online shoppers are interacting with at least one retailer on social networks. This is a huge growth area for retail, and as people begin to be able to make purchases on Facebook and other social sites, understanding how this experience is impacting first-time and loyal customers will be critical.

 
 
Most people choose to friend, follow, or like a retailer on a social site to learn about sales, special offers and products. Very few do so for customer support. Understanding what your customers are coming to your site for can help you with the content on your social pages.

We also see that more than half of those who are interacting with a retailer on a social site have made a purchase because of it. Wow! This is a real testament to the power of those offers you're posting on your Facebook pages and Twitter accounts.

 

One final point of data related to the value of social media. We always ask about customer acquisition sources, and there are some major shifts year-over-year.

• Internet advertising and traditional media are both way down as a driver of traffic to websites.
• Social media, along with email marketing, are both way up.
• Company familiarity is also up (and could be due to more exposures/touch points on social media).

This data tells me we need to be doing a better job, as an industry, getting at the real value of social media.

Top 100: Mobile

Today's follow up topic from our recent Top 100 Online Retail Satisfaction Index is about mobile commerce.

Like social, mobile is turning out to be a touchpoint with enormous potential. When customers rate their satisfaction with various touchpoints, their satisfaction with mobile is relatively low, compared to other touchpoints, though it is on par with website satisfaction. I don't think this will be true for long.

 
 

Satisfaction can be defined as how what you get compares to what you expected to get. Average consumers may not understand that mobile websites and mobile apps are different than regular websites. More and more, they're going to expect the same functionality and the same navigability. And very few retailers are delivering fantastic mobile experiences just yet (a few are), but it's just too new.

There are three ways to manage the customer expectations that will certainly be increading over the next year: 1) make improvements to mobile sites and apps 2) adjust customer expectations 3) a combination of both #1 and #2. 

Let's take a look at how many online shoppers are using their phone to get to a retailer, whether it be a regular website viewed on their mobile phone, a mobile optimized website, or an app. Not many--only 15% say they have. I think we're going to see a huge change in this next year.

 

Most people are  going to look up price or product information in one way or another, though 17% are actually planning to purchase using a mobile phone. I thought that was high, and we will see that number only continue to grow. Every retailer is going to be a little different--understanding what your customers are coming for can really help you design your mobile offerings with the customer in mind.

 

Everyone in our industry is talking about mobile. For many years we have talked about the "year of mobile", it appears that this may truly be the year of mobile. 

We'll be doing this research again in about 6 months. Are there other topics you'd like to see us explore?

Top 100 Match-Ups: Amazon vs. Netflix vs. Blockbuster

One of the stories the media has been most interested this time around is Netflix: why did their satisfaction drop year-over-year, how do they compare to Amazon (which has made a strong competitive bid against Netflix in the last year in particular) and how do they compare to Blockbuster.

Let's take a closer look at the satisfaction scores. Keep in mind that Amazon's satisfaction score is an overall satisfaction score, not just for streaming content. So it's not a direct comparison in some ways, but does give us a general indication. 

	Amazon	Netflix	Blockbuster
Online Customer Satisfaction, Spring 2011	86	84	78

Our model shows the way various elements of a user experience impact satisfaction: for this study, we specifically measure price, functionality, merchandise, and content. The reason Netflix dropped from 87 to 85 in overall satisfaction is because itdropped 2-3 points in every single one of those four elements. The reason Netflix trails Amazon in terms of customer satisfaction is because it trails in each of the elements (again, we are comparing Netflix video services with all of Amazon, so not direct apples-to-apples).

Elements of Website Satisfaction	Amazon	Netflix	Blockbuster
Content	87	87	82
Functionality	86	86	81
Merchandise	89	84	80
Price	86	86	76

Netflix used to compete on technology and functionality—they got movies to you fast, they were cutting edge with their ability to provide streaming video on multiple devices. Now everyone does that and the field is littered with competitors—Amazon, iTunes, Hulu, uVerse, HBOtogo, XFinity, etc are all starting to all on-demand across multiple devices. As more and more competitors enter the field, the things that used to give Netflix the edge are now just expected.

Satisfaction is defined as how what you actually get compares to what you expected to get.The higher customer expectations are, the harder it is to keep satisfaction stable. In order to keep satisfaction stable or even see an increase, Netflix will have to compete more and more on price and merchandise (content/programming).

Netflix actually has kept satisfaction remarkably stable over the years despite huge changes in their business model—to do that without having customer satisfaction or financials take a huge hit is like trying to redesign a jet plane in midair without crashing. But competition is fierce and barriers to entry are lower than ever.

However, the rewards are great. Higher satisfaction leads to future behaviors that have a direct impact on the bottom line. Again, Amazon edges out Netflix in many of these likely future behaviors, but not by much, and not specifically for video streaming and rentals.

Likely Future Behaviors Resulting from Website Satisfaction	Amazon	Netflix	Blockbuster
Brand Commitment	84	83	74
Likelihood to Purchase Next Time	88	85	75
Likelihood to Purchase Online	92	83	72
Likelihood to Recommend	89	87	77
Likelihood to Return to the Website	92	90	78

Netflix remains a strong competitor. It would be interesting to see how these numbers all stack up if we could compare Netflix specifically to Amazon's digital services rather than to overall retail services. I suspect that right now, Netflix would still have the edge... for now.

Meanwhile, Blockbuster's satisfaction score of 78 would be fine and even stellar . . . if they were an insurance company. When the most direct competitor beats them by a full 6 points on satisfaction, it's hard to imagine they can continue to compete for long without major changes to the online customer experience, especially since more and more of their retail stores are closing, and that was the one major competitive advantage they have.

Top 100 E-Retail Satisfaction Index: 2011 Results

Yesterday, I wrote a bit about why it matters which retailers do well and which don't on a customer satisfaction index. So without further ado, let's take a look at the 2011 Top 100 E-Retail Satisfaction Index (the full report can be downloaded from our website for free). Our list is based on Internet Retailer's Top 500 Guide, which reports revenues, satisfaction scores, and a lot of other interesting data.

 
Satisfaction with the top 100 e-retailers remains at an all-time high. It's important to remember that these are the top 100 retailers, not all retailers. These are the guys with the most savvy, the most resources. So we'd expect to see strong scores.

In fact, when we measure the Top 100 e-retailers in 2007, only four sites had a score of 80 or higher, long considered the threshold for excellence when using the ACSI methodology. In 2010 and 2011, nearly one-third of the Top 100 had a score over 80. Similarly, two years ago, 15% of the top 100 scored under 70. Last year and this year, none do.

It seems that the top e-retailers are really bringing their A-game. Given what we know about satisfaction being a future predictor of sales and financial success, what does it mean for the smaller players that the top retailers are doing such a good job satisfying customers? The research we have on smaller retailers indicates there is a much wider satisfaction gap, and that many are struggling to provide the kind of online customer experience that will result in financial rewards.

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The chart of individual scores for the top 100 is quite long and can be downloaded in the free report on our website, or you can also see a quick snapshot of year-over-year satisfaction scores in the press release.  

This year's top 100 brings us more evidence that satisfaction and purchase intent are tightly connected. Companies with higher satisfaction have customers who are more likely to purchase through any channel (online or offline). This infographic (feel free to use and share) shows the relationship between satisfaction and purchase intent among the highest-scoring online retailers.

 

There is so much data here that I'm going to try a little something different this year and do a series of shorter posts touching on some of the highlights. Please feel free to bookmark or subscribe by email (there is a box in the sidebar) and  we will keep the data coming.

Next up: some key competitor matchups.

Customer Satisfaction and Purchase Intent

Tomorrow we're releasing our annual Top 100 E-Retail Satisfaction Index. In advance of the release, I just want to share a little bit about why this is such an important annual report for the industry and why satisfaction matters so much for retailers.

I think almost everyone buys into the concept of tracking and improving customer satisfaction. Most companies have some way to survey customers and will at least give lip service, if not actual service, to the concept that they want to satisfy their customers. But not everyone understands that customer satisfaction is not just a fluffy, feel-good concept. It is measurable and quantifiable.

I could talk about this forever, but I want to keep it simple. The ACSI methodology (developed at the University of Michigan, still in use as a leading national economic indicator that is released monthly) predicts future financial success. Seventeen years of academic research at the University of Michigan and other universities around the world proves that a more satisfied customer is more likely to return, recommend, buy again, and buy more. Companies with higher satisfaction even have higher stock prices. These are facts that are not in dispute.

So, if e-retailers want to manage their business with a metric that will predict the future success of their business, a scientific measure of customer satisfaction is the obvious choice. And that is why it really matters who does well and who doesn't do well on customer satisfaction indices, and why so many financial analysts ask us to lead conference calls reviewing the results of our index each year.

With that, stay tuned for results!